Space Weather Workshop - Aviation and space weather

Robert Maxson (NOAA/NWS/Aviation Weather Center) presented first during the Space Weather Workshop being held in Boulder, Colorado this week. Of particular interest to Secure World Foundation was his brief comment on the reliability of GPS for air navigation during peak solar radiation periods. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), in partnership with several other agencies, is working to make GPS the primary navigation input for air traffic control by about 2035 or so. However, a ground infrastructure will remain as supplemental navigation system. Also discussed was radiation hazards for aircrews and passengers. Polar flights (discussed later) are expected to increase in coming years, presenting new problems since the radiation exposure in polar regions is double that of a flight at the same altitude at the equator.

Cecilia Miner (NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services) also reiterated the GPS issue within the context of the Next Generation Air Transportation System. This system will include an integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation and navigation; a net-centric capability to facilitate communication and provide a virtual repository of data; and direct integration of weather (including space weather) information into operational decision-making process. These will be manifested in something called a 4-Dimensional Weather Cube (three volume dimensions plus time). Initial operational capability of the 4D Cube is expected in 2013. Immediate capability planned for 2016, with full operational capability in 2022. Fielding of the Next Generation Air Transportation System is planned for 2025 - with primary GPS air traffic navigation in place by 2032-2035. The FAA is also dealing with integration of air traffic control (ATC) and space traffic management, pursued because of the expected increase in commercial suborbital flights. This, however, was not discussed during Miner's talk.

The bottom line is that GPS and space weather will be integral components of the next generation air traffic management system. These will also play a crucial role in space traffic management, together with space situational awareness and orbital debris characterization. It is important to note, however, that STM has not yet been defined in any way; rather, it is evident what sorts of information will be required for safe and sustainable operations in space.

Bryn Jones of SolarMetrics presented on the general subject of space weather requirements, with emphasis on activities to address this issue via the Cross Polar Working Group. The CPWG provides a forum to improve air traffic services for aircraft transitioning polar and Russian Far East airspace and includes representatives from Russia, Canada, Iceland, U.S. (FAA), the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Business Aviation Council (IBAC), among others. Bottom line here is the desire to have real-time radiation exposure data fed to aircrews while inflight. Note also that communications during portions of polar flights cannot be reliably supported by satellites in GEO; instead, HF is used in daylight or ground infrastructure is used when aircraft are not in the GEO satellites' line of sight. GPS signals are also apparently not always accurate on parts of polar routes.

Mike Stills of United Airlines discussed polar aviation operations and space weather. According to Stills, there were only 368 transpolar flights in 2000. In 2008, this ballooned to 7,999 such flights (United flies most of these polar flights). He highlighted the problems of intense space weather outbreaks on polar air operations and what sorts of processes can help mitigate the impact of hazardous space weather. Polar operations are defined as flights conducted above 78N latitude. Commercial polar fights are not conducted above 78S. Challenges include space weather, colder temperatures, lack of diversion services (not many emergency options in terms of landing sites) and communications.

Ian Getley of Quantas Airlines presented next on the "Evaluation of New Cosmic Radiation Monitors Designed for Aircrew Exposure Assessment." Following his talk was one delivered by Matthias Meier of the German Aerospace Center, who spoke on the subject of dose rate measurements at aviation altitudes during the past solar minimum (March 2006 to August 2008). Closing out thee morning session was Chris Mertens of NASA Langley, who presented on "NAIRAS Prediction of Aircraft Radiation Exposure During a High-energy Solar Energetic Particle Event in October 2003." Though interesting, no details of these talks are provided here since their relationship to SWF agenda items is not immediately apparent.