Space Weather Workshop - Space Weather and Satellite Operations

Today's afternoon session focuses on space weather and satellite operations, beginning with a presentation by Michael Bodeau of Northrup Grumman on the matter of deep charging among GEO satellites. Jeff Cassidy of Global Aerospace followed with a discussion on satellite insurance. Cassidy first described the satellite insurance industry; the industry is worldwide with risks typically shared among many insurers. Worldwide premium ranged from $600 million to $1 billion peer year. Satellite insurance is considered "catastrophic" by the insurance sector, and coverage is broken into launch phase, post-separation through end of in-orbit testing (IOT) and in-orbit.

Cassidy then discussed the satellite anomaly database, which contains information on 562 satellites through 2002. Data is collected from public sector and two decades of satellite health reports. The data collection process ceased in 2002 due to ITAR concerns, and a scrubbed version was made available to the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). However, the data is limited and therefore statistical validity is an issue. The database is generally used for evaluating failure history for insurance underwriting and is focused on measuring percentage of loss capacity; data includes satellite name, date of anomaly, manufacturer, model, affected subsystem, etc. Ten percent of anomalies result in loss of capacity, mostly due to power subsystem issues. Findings include: 1) Payload electrical power systems are drivers for loss of capacity, 2) most serious anomalies are in the subsystems, 3) anecdotal evidence of periodic recurrence of certain types of anomalies, and 4) potential exists to overlay anomaly data with space environmental data.

Orbital debris was also discussed in the context of insurance briefly; the risk is very small, but there is concern that the number of impact from debris is increasing. Still, from Cassidy's perspective, launch is issue number one, with mission operations second. Orbital debris is considered a third priority.

An article in Aviation Week & Space Technology (April 13, 2009, page 38-39) also addresses insurance issues related to orbital debris. The article states that "premiums have outstripped claims for six of the past seven years and are expected to do so again this year. This has kept insurer margins high, as the five-year cumulative gross margin indicates, and attracted plenty of capacity, keeping rates low." The insurance industry finished 2008 with $930 million in gross premiums and claims of less than $320 million. Orbital debris is considered a growing problem, as Cassidy indicated, with about $1 billion worth of insured satellites in LEO (particularly between 500-1,000 kilometers). GEO is also a worrisome issue, with the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) pointing out that there are 94 "rogue drifter satellites" in the active GEO belt. There is little in terms of a legal context to help owner/operators identify satellites or debris when it comes to insurance claims and assign liability. Third-party liability, according to the AW&ST article, "is available for damage caused by a third party in the course of routine launch and satellite orbital operations." Still, there are very few satellites that have this kind of coverage. While the risk of damage caused by orbital debris is less that of launch failure or subsystem failure, "more accurate data" about the space environment (i.e., civil space situational awareness) is cited as a requirement to address this growing problem.

Dave Chenette of Lockheed Martin presented on the importance of space weather to satellite operations. His talk focused mainly on how Lockheed depends on short-term forecasts and near real time space weather measurements. A discussion on how models are applied with these data to plan and execute on-orbit operations followed. Chenette emphasized the need for real-time space weather data, from launch to satellite operations. In short, short-term space weather prediction models are required for mission planning, combined with real-time knowledge to support SSA and inform anomaly response. Models currently being used include the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (for GEO) and the Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index.