SWF Space Symposium update

The 25th National Space Symposium, organized by the Space Foundation and co-sponsored by a large number of aerospace organizations, is currently under way in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The event will take place from March 30 to April 2.

The first day of the symposium took place with an opening ceremony complete with fireworks, but the highlight of the day was honoring the Chinese Shenzhou 7 crew which launched last year and gained notoriety for a successful spacewalk.

Today started off with an excellent panel focusing on the future of spaceflight with Michael Simpson, president of the International Space University (ISU) as moderator. Panel members included futurist Alvin Toffler, former FAA Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation Patty Grace Smith and Keith Hall of Booz Allen Hamilton.　

General Robert Kehler, commander of Air Force Space Command, delivered an interesting talk focused on USAF plans to deal with what he called a "battle sphere," an integrated, multi-faceted volume consisting of Earth, space and cyberspace. He also mentioned USAF plans to shift command of ICBMs (currently Minuteman III) to a new Global Strike Command. Finally, General Kehler used the term "space commons," though he did not go into detail regarding what he meant in this context.

"Challenges for the Next Space Age" was addressed, featuring a panel moderated by Lt. Gen. Michael Hamel (Ret.). Panel members included Dr. Mark Albrecht, Senior Aerospace and Telecommunications Executive; Vice Admiral Lyle Bien (Ret.), Independent Assessment Panel member; David McGlade, CEO of Intelsat; and Dr. Scott Pace, Director of the Space Policy Institute at The George Washington University.

Rachel Yates, attorney with Holland & Hart and SWF Advisory Committee Member moderated a panel on "Regulating the Next Space Age" featuring FAA/AST Associate Administrator George Nield and SWF Communications Director Phil Smith. Discussion started on the subject of the current regulatory environment regarding commercial space flight in the United States, in addition to future plans. Also discussed was international efforts to address space governance issues, specifically orbital debris mitigation and space traffic management.

Agnieszka Lukaszczyk, Executive Officer with the Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC) and SWF Space Policy Consultant, moderated a panel on views regarding the future of spaceflight among the younger generation (under 35 years old). Panel members included Paul Engola of Lockheed Martin, Nicole Jordan of X Prize Foundation, Captain Genevieve Minzyk of USAF Space Command and Brooke Owen of FAA/AST. Of particular interest was a discussion on how this generation of interested space participants use new communication technologies to inspire and promote issues related to space, especially the international effect this has. Another topic addressed was gender bias in the aerospace industry, if any. Captain Minzyk mentioned that one challenge the U.S. has is perceiving itself as the dominant space power, neglecting the space affairs of others.

More entries and photos will be posted.

SWF's Phil Smith: Panel Member Details the Next Space Age

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado - Phil Smith, Communications Director for the Secure World Foundation, participated today in a panel dedicated to regulating the next space age.

Smith was joined by George Nield, Associate Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration's Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Orbital debris was spotlighted by both Smith and Nield during the panel, held at the Space Foundation's 25th National Space Symposium and moderated by Rachel Yates, a partner in the Holland and Hart law firm.

Looking into the future, "things are going to be changing going forward," Nield advised. In particular, space will be much more international, with other countries -- India, China, and Europe -- moving toward independent human access to space.

Smith said that there is clear need for regulations as more nations exploit the space environment. He remarked that space is a domain for future generations to explore, live, work and play in space.

North Korean missile/launch vehicle seen on pad

The image above, obtained and released by DigitalGlobe, clearly shows that a missile or launch vehicle has been placed on a pad at Musudan-ri in North Korea. The launch is expected between April 4 and April 8.

Technical analysis of the Unha-2 vehicle has been written by David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists, an SWF partner on space security matters. Brian Weeden, SWF Technical Consultant, has also written about North Korea's anticipated launch.

Rules of the Road for Responsible Space-Faring Nations: Dealing with Proximity Operations

SWF partner Henry L. Stimson Center will be hosting a workshop next month. Michael Krepon, who is Director of the Stimson Center's Space Security Project, will be managing the event. Details below:

Please join me at the Stimson Center at 2:00 pm on Wednesday, April 1, 2009 for a workshop on how a Code of Conduct for responsible space-faring nations might be applied to proximity operations. Helping to guide our discussion will be:
- Dr. David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists;
- Dr. Geoffrey Forden of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and
- Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of the New America Foundation.

If you plan to join us, please contact Sam Black at sblack@stimson.org or (202) 464-2676.

The Stimson Center is located at:
1111 19th St NW, 12th Floor
Washington DC, 20036
Phone: (202) 223-5956

COPUOS Legal Subcommittee holding its 48th session this week and next

The 48th session of the Legal Subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) opened on March 23, 2009 at the Vienna International Center and will last until April 2. The Secure World Foundation, which has permanent observer status at COPUOS, will be represented by consultant Agnieszka Lukaszczyk. She will also be representing an SWF partner, the Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC), as she is an executive officer with that organization.

The objective of this session, according to the COPUOS website, is to address the status and application of the five United Nations treaties on outer space, review and possible revision of the principles relevant to the use of nuclear power sources in outer space, definition and delimitation of outer space, matters relating to the character and use of the geostationary orbit, and capacity-building in space law. International organizations have been invited to report on their activities related to space law.

The agenda for this session consists of the following:

- General exchange of information on national mechanisms relating to space debris mitigation measures
- Status and application of the five United Nations treaties on outer space
- Registering property interests in space assets
- Capacity-building in space law
- General exchange of information on national legislation relevant to the peaceful exploration and use of outer space
- Membership (currently at 69 Member States)

For further information, please contact:

Jamshid Gaziyev
Associate Programme Officer, UNOOSA
Telephone: (+43-1) 26060-4958
Email: jamshid.gaziyev@unoosa.org

Shuttle Discovery-ISS maneuvered again to avoid space debris

Space Shuttle Discovery, currently docked to the International Space Station (ISS) was ordered to fire its thrusters to slightly lower the orbit of the combination. This was done to maneuver away from a piece of orbital debris being described as 10 centimeters (four inches) in diameter. The object, according to Reuters, comes from a 1999 Chinese launch event.

Responding to questions posed by MSNBC, NASA Flight Director Kwatsi Alibaruho said, "Space debris is becoming an ever-increasing challenge. [Orbital debris is] a big deal. It's very tiring. Sometimes it's exhausting."

News coverage:

Reuters
MSNBC
Space.com
Spaceflightnow.com

Experts to convene on space situational awareness concerns

The recent collision between spacecraft and close encounters with orbital debris by the crew of the International Space Station has heightened interest in taking new steps in space traffic control.

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is the theme to be addressed by leading experts attending Improving Our Vision III, to be held March 23-24 at Intelsat Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

This two-day event is being sponsored by a partnership between Secure World Foundation, Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies, the Center for Defense Information, the George C. Marshall Institute and Intelsat. "Space Situational Awareness is one of the most important space issues of our time," said Dr. Ray Williamson, Executive Director of Secure World Foundation.

The conference will bring together representatives of the U.S. military, civil space agencies, satellite companies and non-governmental organizations. "The objective of the meeting is to find a way forward toward a more open way to provide crucial SSA awareness information to space system operators," Dr. Williamson said.

This month’s conference is the third in a series. The first meeting was held in London in 2007 at Inmarsat Headquarters, with the first conference taking place in Colorado Springs, Colorado in 2006.

Data sharing
Among topics to be spotlighted at this year’s event will be discussion of the U.S. Air Force Phase 3 of Commercial and Foreign Entities – which is slated to provide advanced services to satellite operators. The program also includes a demonstration by the Center for Space Standards & Innovation of its SOCRATES-GEO data center that uses owner-operated-provided data to provide greatly improved accuracy and reduces false alarms.

This timely gathering of international authorities will turn their attention to the growing challenges in the space environment, policy imperatives of safe and responsible behavior, as well as the prospect for international cooperation in SSA.
Secure World Foundation (SWF) believes that an SSA system needs to be international in both its creation and operations, noted Brian Weeden, SWF’s Technical Consultant. Accurate tracking of all objects in Earth orbit requires a geographically distributed network of both radar and optical telescopes.

"Such a network is very expensive to create and maintain, and only the United States has thus far developed one," Weeden pointed out. "And while the United States’ space surveillance network does provide the most complete SSA data in the world, it still has significant limitations due to the lack of coverage in areas where the United States does not have a presence."

In addition to global sensor coverage, an international civil SSA system must also include data from commercial satellite owner-operators: these entities have data on the locations of their satellites more accurate than any ground-based sensor could obtain.

"The key to making such a system work is in the data sharing model," Weeden said.

Meeting information
Improving Our Vision III is being held at:

Intelsat Headquarters
3400 International Drive, NW
Washington, D.C.

Please note that Chatham House rules of non-attribution will apply, and all discussions will be on an unclassified level.

Due to security, media wishing to attend must contact:

Phil Smith, SWF Communications Director
Email: psmith@swfound.org
Phone: (303) 554-1560

An Analysis of North Korea’s Unha-2 Launch Vehicle

David Wright, Co-Director and Senior Scientist for the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a partner of Secure World Foundation, has written an excellent piece on North Korea's anticipated launch event from Musudan-ri launch center (pictured above, courtesy of DigitalGlobe):

An Analysis of North Korea’s Unha-2 Launch Vehicle

From the UCS website:

"North Korea has announced that it will attempt to launch a satellite into orbit in early April 2009 using its Unha-2 launcher. Few details are known about the launch vehicle since it has not been successfully flight tested. This paper attempts to model North Korea's launch vehicle based on publicly available information, assuming that it uses a similar level of technology as past North Korean missiles. This analysis suggests the launcher could place a payload of about 100 kg into orbit at 400 km altitude. Moreover, if used as a ballistic missile, it may be able to carry a 500 kg payload to a range of roughly 9,000 km, and a 1,000 kg payload 6,000 km; however, the missile structure may not be able to accommodate such a large increase in payload mass. While this would be a significant increase in range over North Korea's current missiles, it does not represent a true intercontinental nuclear delivery capability since developing a first generation warhead and heatshield with a mass of 500 kg or less is likely to be a significant challenge for North Korea.

The paper then looks at the kind of technical improvements that could be made to a launcher that would allow it to place several times as much mass in orbit, and that would increase the payload and range capability if used as a ballistic missile. It is unclear whether North Korea has the technical capability to take these steps. Information from the upcoming launch will provide information that may help to clarify the actual capabilities of the launcher."

Google Earth space tracking

Google Earth now has a feature that allows you to see satellites and space junk in orbit around our planet.

The data is provided by the U.S. Strategic Command, and has been adapted for Google Earth by Analytical Graphics (AGI). First, you must download Google Earth. Then, you must download the plug-in that will allow you to see the locations of satellites and debris in orbit. Once it opens in Google Earth, open up the sidebar on the left of your screen. You'll see a link that says, "Satellite Database." Click on the arrow to its left. A series of check boxes will appear. Uncheck all of them except "Debris" and you'll see the thousands of objects left in space.

Fascinating!

Orbital debris in the news...again

Not even a day after Space Shuttle Discovery launched from Kennedy Space Center, Florida, it seems the International Space Station (ISS) may have to be maneuvered to avoid a piece of space junk left over from Cosmos 1275, a Russian satellite that broke apart shortly after its launch in 1981. If the ISS is maneuvered, Discovery will also need to alter its course in order to rendezvous properly with the station. The debris in question is approximately 10 centimeters (four inches) in diameter.

Last week, ISS astronauts had to evacuate to the Soyuz spacecraft docked to the station in anticipation of a possible collision with a piece of debris from a spent Delta 2 upper stage. The debris passed by ISS without incident.

Reports:

MSNBC
CNN

Secure World Foundation Announces New Partnership

Secure World Foundation formerly announced today a new partnership with Imaging Notes magazine.

A key effort of Secure World Foundation centers on strengthening or developing the policies and institutions that improve the utility of space technologies in support of human and environmental security needs.

Imaging Notes is a premier publication for commercial, government and academic remote sensing professionals around the world. The quarterly magazine is also affiliated with the Alliance for Earth Observations, a program of The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

"Space systems can provide significant benefits to humanity but they are generally underutilized," said Dr. Ray Williamson, Executive Director of Secure World Foundation. "This partnership with Imaging Notes magazine provides an important vehicle for our efforts to make more effective use of space tools to enhance human and environmental security." Dr. Williamson also serves as editor of Imaging Notes.

"In the four years since Imaging Notes has been independently owned, the links have been more widely recognized among national and global security, climate and environmental changes, renewable energy, and human security," said Myrna James Yoo, Publisher/Managing Editor of the magazine.

Now understood, Yoo added, is that remotely sensed data is key for understanding and addressing these most important, interrelated issues of our time.

This partnership with Secure World Foundation allows Imaging Notes to focus more acutely on human security as the overarching theme, Yoo said. "Human security is an issue when climate change and storms cause climate refugees, and when wars about oil cause human suffering and highlight the need for renewable energy."

Imaging Notes, with its focus on applications of remote sensing and geospatial technologies, Yoo concluded, "is the ideal vehicle to deliver the messages of the Secure World Foundation – long-term space security, with the ultimate goal of long-term human security."

Dr. Williamson explained that the magazine will continue to solicit informative articles on the "what, wherefore, and how to" of meeting human and environmental security needs, and will be adding the dimensions of international policy—legal and institutional mechanisms needed for ensuring that the benefits of space activities reach people effectively and efficiently.

"With its partnership with Secure World Foundation, this magazine is dedicated to offering timely, insightful applications articles on solutions to human security needs," Dr. Williamson said. "Future issues will cover the roles of satellite observations and geospatial technolo¬gies in understanding and responding to global change, in natural disaster mitiga¬tion and response, and in preventing the sorts of human-made disasters that directly harm our security on this planet,” he said.

To subscribe, go to: www.imagingnotes.com – click on "subscribe".

To write for Imaging Notes, please see "Contributor’s Guidelines" by going to www.imagingnotes.com.

Article proposals can be sent to editor@imagingnotes.com.

ISS crew given "all clear"

The orbital debris threat to the ISS has passed without incident.

The event, which is not frequent but also not uncommon, represents another example of how orbital debris influences mission planning and safety. The object in question is called a "yo-weight," a one-meter tether attached to a small weight designed to cause a rocket upper stage to tumble away from a just released payload to avoid collision. The upper stage component was from a Delta 2 flight that delivered a GPS satellite to orbit in 1993. The object was cataloged, but due to some analytical errors was not identified as a potential threat until later than desired. When NASA was warned by the USAF of a possible conjunction between the debris and ISS, it was too late for a maneuver, so astronauts had to evacuate to Soyuz as a precautionary measure. The object passed the station without incident. It should be noted that it is still very early and details are subject to change.

As activities in space increase in number and sophistication, the generation of orbital debris will need to be curtailed and existing junk removed. The former is being addressed via voluntary protocols endorsed by the United Nations, whereas the latter remains a non-trivial technological hurdle. The problem is global in scope and therefore requires international participation, which is why, among other reasons, the Secure World Foundation works with its partners worldwide to develop technically sound policy solutions.

International Space Station conjunction alert RED

The three members of Expedition 18 (NASA's Expedition 18 Commander Mike Fincke, Russian Flight Engineer Yury Lonchakov and NASA's Sandra Magnus) may be asked to evacuate into the Russian Soyuz spacecraft attached to the International Space Station (ISS), following a "RED threshold late notice conjunction threat" alert.

The alert was issued due to tracking of an orbital debris object labeled "25090 PAM-D." The Soyuz is used to transport astronauts to and from the station, and is also used as a lifeboat in the event of a catastrophic station failure.

Tracking of the small piece of debris was initially classed as a low threat of collision with the ISS. However, latest tracking suggests the threat is red.

More information is available here.

Canadian Leadership in Space: International Experts to Discuss Need for Cohesive Policy

The need to shape a Canadian space policy is being addressed this week by a special roundtable of international experts meeting in Ottawa, a discussion that will focus on what is required to spur government action on space activities.

2009 Roundtable on Space - New Horizons at Home and Abroad - is being held on March 12 at the Novotel Hotel in Ottawa, Canada.

The Secure World Foundation is partnering with Canada's Rideau Institute on International Affairs on an exploration of Canada's need for a comprehensive Canadian space policy.

Participants are addressing a range of Canadian space issues, from advancing a space policy that works for all stakeholders to formulating an action plan for the year to further Canada's objectives in using space systems.

"Many Canadian ministries make use of space systems to bring services to Canadian citizens," said Dr. Ray Williamson, Executive Director of the Secure World Foundation (SWF). "However, without a government-wide policy to focus and guide Canadian space activities, the ministries' efforts tend to be uncoordinated and less efficient than they could be."

Dr. Williamson underscored the important role that The Rideau Institute is serving, endeavoring to forge a consensus about space and the benefits that space systems provide among Canadian stakeholders.

"This roundtable is providing a critical opportunity for a timely exchange of ideas between Canada's Space Agency and key stakeholders," said Anthony Salloum, Program Director of the Rideau Institute. "It is designed to spark new ideas on advancing a national space policy for Canada that has, at its core, a vision for Canada's role in space that takes into account our national interests and commitment to the sustainable use of space."

Emerging strategic plans

A discussion of U.S. space policy under U.S President Barack Obama's Administration is to be moderated by Brian Weeden, SWF's Technical Consultant.

The 2009 Roundtable on Space will bring together about 40 representatives from key federal government departments, elected representatives, the space sector, and academia, as well as experts from the United States. Participants will discuss emerging strategic plans for the Canadian and international space sector, and ways to help advance a cohesive vision for Canadian leadership in space.

Participants taking part in the day-long roundtable include representatives from the Institute of Air and Space Law at McGill University, the Canadian Space Agency, Canadian Auto Workers, Telesat Canada, the Canadian Space Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Space Society.

Secure World Foundation is a private operating foundation dedicated to the secure and sustainable use of space for the benefit of Earth and all its peoples.

SWF engages with academics, policy makers, scientists and advocates in the space and international affairs communities to support steps that strengthen global space security. It promotes the development of cooperative and effective use of space for the protection of Earth’s environment and human security.

The Foundation acts as a research body, convener and facilitator to advocate for key space security and other space related topics and to examine their influence on governance and international development.

The Rideau Institute on International Affairs is an independent research, advocacy and consulting group based in Ottawa. It provides research, analysis and commentary on public policy issues to decision makers, opinion leaders and the public. It is a federally registered non-profit organization, established in January 2007.

Dr. John Logsdon, Charles Lindbergh Chair in Aerospace History at the National Air and Space Museum and SWF Advisory Committee member, will be making a presentation.

The Crowded Skies - By the numbers

Today, CNN.com had a potentially interesting headline entitled "Earth: A Ringed Planet?" Unfortunately, when a reader clicks on this headline one is treated to a collage of nine random space-related images. In the lower left is a picture of the Earth surrounded with dots, apparently the inspiration for the headline. However, when you click on this image, very little information is provided. The image, by the way, is an artist's depiction of satellites and rocket bodies in orbit around the Earth, part of a wonderful series produced by the European Space Agency.

We felt it might be a good idea to provide a blog entry that covers a few general facts and estimates, all in one convenient place.

First, the following orbits are commonly referred to:

Low Earth orbit (LEO) - This refers to a range of orbits between the lowest possible sustainable orbit (which varies due to expansion and contraction of the atmosphere, among other factors) of about 110 kilometers (68 miles) and an altitude of about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles). A type of LEO of interest to those operating remote sensing satellites is called Sun synchronous orbit (SSO), whereby a satellite circles the Earth around the poles timed in such a way as to always ensure there will be sunlight to facilitate image capture and/or enable complete global coverage. The International Space Station, the Space Shuttle, Shenzhou, Iridium and a bunch of other objects orbit in LEO. Quickbird and NOAA POES satellites, among others, orbit in SSO.

Medium Earth orbit (MEO) - This is sometimes used to describe a region between 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and 35,786 kilometers (22,236 miles). Positioning, navigation and timing satellites like Navstar GPS and Glonass and satellites like them occupy this area.

Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) - This refers to an altitude of 35,786 kilometers (22,236 miles). A satellite in this orbit will revolve around the Earth at the same rate as the Earth rotates, meaning that it "hovers" over a hemisphere of the planet. Its inclination can vary, usually between five degrees below or above the equatorial plane. This orbit is ideal for communications services, and includes satellites operated by Intelsat, DirecTV, Inmarsat, Arabsat, AsiaSat and the U.S. Air Force. Geostationary orbits are those whose inclination is precisely zero, meaning that a satellite is fixed at a point exactly over the planet's equator.

Other figures:
1. There have been about 4,600 orbital launches since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957. These launches placed about 6,000 payloads into space. About 400 of these are beyond GEO, many sent to the Sun, other planets or beyond. (Source: European Space Agency).

2. Of the 6,000 satellites, probes, landers and rovers launched, about 850 are still working and 360 of these are in GEO.

3. The U.S. Air Force actively tracks about 17,000 artificial objects in orbit around the Earth, including the estimated 5,600 active and dead satellites. The rest (11,400 objects) are pieces of junk measuring greater than 10 centimeters (four inches) in diameter. Junk is also referred to as "orbital debris".

4. There are approximately 560,000 pieces of junk measuring between 10 centimeters (four inches) and one centimeter (0.5 inches) and 330,000,000 bits of junk smaller than this. None of this material is tracked. (Source: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office).

5. Orbital debris in LEO travels at between seven and eight kilometers per second. Generally, impact speeds will be around 10 kilometers per second. (Source: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office). By comparison, bullets travel between 0.8 and 1.5 kilometers per second.

6. About 100 to 200 large objects reenter the atmosphere each year. These include satellites, platforms, rocket bodies and debris. (Source: The Aerospace Corporation Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies). During the Cold War, this number was as high as 1,000 (1989).

7. There have been eight known orbital collisions between two objects in space. The most recent occurred between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 on February 10, 2009. This was the first time two satellites collided. All other instances involved a satellite and a rocket body or a rocket body and debris. (Source: Dr. David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists).