SECURE WORLD FOUNDATION NEWSLETTER The Secure World Newsletter Volume 1, Issue 2 January 11, 2008 - Special Edition on the First Anniversary of the Chinese ASAT Test The Secure World is a biweekly online publication focused on space governance. www.secureworldfoundation.org To subscribe or unsubscribe from this newsletter go to: http://secureworldfoundation.org/newsletter or send email to: newsletter@secureworldfoundation.org and in the body of the email write "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" and include your email address or contact us via phone, email or mail. ______________________________________________________ ANTI-SATELLITE TEST, ONE YEAR LATER: ORBITAL DEBRIS UNDERSCORES NEED FOR POLICY ACTION On January 11, 2007, China purposely destroyed its own aging meteorological spacecraft making use of a direct-ascent interceptor launched from Earth. That demolition of the nearly one-metric ton Fengyun-1C satellite proliferated low Earth orbit with hazardous orbital debris. The anti-satellite (ASAT) target practice by the People’s Republic of China created a debris cloud of space junk, placing in harm’s way billions of dollars of operational satellites in the service of numerous nations, as well as the International Space Station and its crew. That lingering cloud of dangerous space junk from the Chinese ASAT is a wake-up call, one that all nations engaged in utilizing space should heed, observed Ray Williamson, Executive Director of the Secure World Foundation. The consequence of China’s ASAT test, Williamson added, signals a requirement for action on several fronts. “We need an international cooperative approach to space situational awareness, space traffic management and an international agreement banning further ASAT tests,” Williamson noted. “Despite the problems the Chinese test has created for satellites in orbit, perhaps something good can come out of the test in the form of an increased awareness of the threat to space systems from orbital debris and the need to reduce that threat,” Williamson said. “In fact, in my view, the Chinese test generally increases the incentive to craft and adopt internationally acceptable ‘rules of the road’ for space, with the goals of not only reducing the threat of damage from orbital debris, but also assisting all countries in establishing and maintaining relatively safe access to space,” Williamson said. Explained Cynda Collins Arsenault, President and co-founder of the Secure World Foundation: “Although China has been rather silent in commenting on the test, and there are multiple speculations as to the purpose, China in conjunction with Russia continues to push for a treaty preventing the weaponization of space in the United Nations Conference on Disarmament.” Since the ASAT test a year ago, only a small percentage of the spacecraft wreckage has reentered the Earth’s atmosphere, where it usually burns up before reaching the surface. The majority of the debris was thrown into long-duration orbits, with lifetimes measured in decades - even centuries. In one reported instance, NASA had to execute a collision-avoidance maneuver with its Terra Earth-monitoring spacecraft to evade a piece of debris from the Chinese ASAT test. NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office at the space agency’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas has stated that the cloud of clutter from the ASAT test “represents the single worst contamination of low Earth orbit during the past 50 years.” A recent NASA analysis of ASAT-produced space junk – pieces that are one centimeter and greater – has estimated that 150,000 bits or more of orbiting flotsam were created immediately after the test. “This was the worst debris-generating event on record,” explained T.S. Kelso, technical program manager at the Center for Space Standards and Innovation in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The orbital clutter has meant that there are large numbers of “close approaches” between ASAT test-caused debris and orbiting payloads, he advised the Secure WorldFoundation. “The bottom line is that the problem is worse than most people realize,” Kelso added. He also feels that collisions in space might be more in number than catalogued. To date, there have been only three recorded collisions – but detecting and verifying those hits between orbiting objects is an arduous process that can take months, if not years. Because we don’t notice collisions…it does not mean that such incidents are not a regular occurrence, Kelso advised. “Just because we aren’t watching what’s happening doesn’t mean that nothing bad will happen. We need to open our eyes,” he concluded. To read world reaction to the January 2007 China ASAT test, visit the following link: http://secureworldfoundation.org/mainc.php?ax=05&ay=03#reactions. ____________________________________________ The kinetic ASAT was probably launched by a radar-guided, mobile, solid-fuel KT-1 or KT-2 missile. For more information, see 'China's Direct Ascent ASAT', by Richard Fisher, 20 January 2007; 'Chinese Anti-Satellite [ASAT] Capabilities, WWW.GlobalSecurity.org; and by Desmond Ball, ‘Assessing China's ASAT program', Nautilus Institute, 14 June 2007. ____________________________________________ UPCOMING EVENT - THE STATE OF SPACE SECURITY A Workshop Organized by the Space Policy Institute, Elliot School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, DC in partnership with the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Secure World Foundation, and the Ploughshares Fund January 24, 2008 Jack Morton Auditorium 805 21st Street NW Washington, DC Advanced reservation required. To reserve a space, send an email to spi@gwu.edu ____________________________________________ BOOKS TWILIGHT WAR: FOLLY OF U.S. SPACE DOMINANCE Washington, D.C., January 1, 2008 Twilight War: Folly of U.S. Space Dominance is the topic of a new book by Mike Moore, Research Fellow at the Independent Institute in Washington, D.C. Moore offers clear insight into how best to ensure that outer space remains a resource for all and a security threat to none. He takes aim at the lack of action in Washington, D.C., including missing leadership on this issue by the last four U.S. presidents and he argues that the United States only provokes conflict when it presumes to be the exception to the rule; rejecting treaty negotiations while further militarizing space renders the U.S. unable to lead by example. For more information see our Book Reviews at http://secureworldfoundation.org/mainc.php?ax=02&ay=07 and our Events Calendar at http://secureworldfoundation.org/mainc.php?ax=02&ay=08#moore-tour for tour schedule. ____________________________________________ EDITORIAL STAFF Leonard David - Writer and Editor Barbara David - Assistant Editor Tom Meyer - Distribution and Webmaster Ray Williamson - Foundation Executive Director Phil Smith - Assistant Director for Research and Plans Cynda Collins Arsenault - Foundation Chairman of the Board and Foundation President Sarah Hartzell - Office Manager Sam Moyer - Intern ____________________________________________ Secure World Foundation Tel: 303-554-1560 Fax: 303-554-1562 Email: info@swfound.org www.secureworldfoundation.org To subscribe or unsubscribe from this newsletter go to: http://secureworldfoundation.org/newsletter or send email to: newsletter@secureworldfoundation.org and in the body of the email write "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" and include your email address or contact us via phone, email or mail. Next Issue: News and Highlights Secure World Foundation - Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Security